Look after a pet. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. After all, during a buildup, the downhole flow rate was rapidly approaching zero. For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? I ended up moving to Japan and working there for many years. It will only do one thing well, and youll have to move all of your content to use it. Learn more with Olympus. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. 2. Counting for inflation, probably more money was spent [than] than Facebook just spent on Oculus. Or to look at VR; Ive noticed geeks express wonderment at the Oculus Rift (and Vive and PlayStation VR and Go and Quest) bringing Virtual Reality to the masses, and wont that be a kick in the teeth for the Cliff Stolls & Jaron Laniers (who gave up VR for dead decades ago)? Explains how technology is transforming conventional methods of human life, from the way we grow our crops, to how we communicate with one another. Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. (This is assisted by the fact that patents no longer require even the pretense of a working model.) Yes). Within industrial research organizationsand, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine. The aeroplane industry cannot now redeem Daedalus nor can the computer industry recover the money spent by the British Admiralty more than a hundred years ago in support of Charles Babbage and his calculating machine. The origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy; eg. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. Granted that an ICS can be developed, is now the right time to mount the effort? and simple to express: But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. Modern genomics strikes me as a bit like this. I think most people are aware of fads/stampedes in investing, but the latter error is not so commonly discussed. Actually, our son played a role in all this as well, and I look forward to seeing Alex make his mark in the energy industry before long. More importantly, he showed me what differentiated quartz-gauge data looked like. Because some development may not be appropriate to the time. Great scientists have thought through, in a careful way, a number of important problems in their field, and they keep an eye on wondering how to attack them. BOYDEN: One way to think of it is that, if a scientific topic is really popular and everybodys doing it, then I dont need to be part of that. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. Cer- ogy investments because it allows one to From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. Businesses wont be able to get enough of it; employees will love to hate it., English Wikipedia: Well compete with Microsoft Encarta, the Encyclopedia Britannica, H2G2, Everything2, Interpedia, The Distributed Encyclopedia Project (TDEP), TheInfo, & GNUs GNE by letting literally anyone edit some draft articles for Nupedia.9, Zoom: Skype has a literally 15-year headstart, but we can do so much better, and maybe something will make everyone suddenly want to video-conference after all this time avoiding it as much as possible?. And will she walk through walls when the going gets toughwhich it inevitably will in nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting? The challenge had always been to come up with a closed-form solution that related to time. So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. Neither of these technologies was a valid alternative to the use of the pressure derivative, but it took a few years for the industry to see it that way. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). 3). As we discussed earlier, optogenetics and expansion microscopy both begin from papers from other fields, some of which are quite old and which mostly had been ignored by other people. UHF RFID systems use frequencies in the 860-960 MHz range and can be used to detect as many as 1,000+ tags per second as far as 10-15 meters from the reader, making them ideal for wide and busy finish lines where several tagged participants may be crossing in a short space of time. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. Our signature selling point will be that it takes fewer lines of code to set up, so programmers will like us., LinkedIn: Well do social networking like has been already patented by SixDegrees.com, forcing us to buy their patent., Slack: IRC+email but infinitely slower & more locked in. 2). ): CyberSlice blew through $174.1$100.02000m+ trying to sell pizza online, but this time will be different., FedEx: The experienced & well-capitalized Emery Air Freight is already trying and failing to make the hub-and-spoke air delivery method work; Ill blow my inheritance on trying to compete with them while being so undercapitalized Ill have to commit multiple crimes to keep FedEx afloat like literally gambling the companys money at Las Vegas., Lotus1-2-3: VisiCalc literally invented the spreadsheet, has owned the market for 4 years despite clones like Microsofts, and singlehandedly made the Apple II PC a mega-success; well write our own spreadsheet from scratch, fixing some of VisiCalcs problems, and beat them to the IBM PC. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. In this case, the flowmeter acquires data while the well is flowing, which is what it is intended to do. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. In a recent poll [8], thirty-five out of forty-two people engaged in this sort of research gave estimates between ten and one hundred years. While upper management panders to environmentalists, the young minions keep slogging it out, delivering the oil and gas that is desperately needed all over the world as though there will be no end to it. I basically think all the ideas of the 90s that everybody had about how this stuff was going to work, I think they were all right, they were all correct. Time and race number: done. Bible verses about God's perfect timing. In the 1980s, famed technologist Stewart Brand visited the equally-famed MIT Media Lab (perhaps the truest spiritual descendant of the MIT AI Lab) & Nicholas Negroponte, publishing a 1988 book, The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T. In the current time people can't imagine their life without technology. They are not important problems because we do not have an attack. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. Kafkas idiosyncrasy is present in each of these writings, to a greater or lesser degree, but if Kafka had not written, we would not perceive it; that is to say, it would not exist. What does this analogy suggest? Only Apple can build apps for it. It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. "They say, timing is everything. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). We just could never, never, never get it quite there., JL: The component cost. And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. Santos, Ma.Miguela B. BSBA - FM2 Science,Technology and Society Reflection: Timing your Technology The people listed in her article have all subscribed to the rigorous analysis that was necessary, and they, as she has, have left their mark in the improved understanding we now often take for granted. reflection-in-action. Many bubbles can be interpreted as people being 100% correct the futurebut missing the timing (Thiels article on China and bubbles1, The Economist on obscure property booms, Garbers Famous First Bubbles). Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. Its a universal rule. You dont want to publish a paper that says, After the study, we came to the conclusion that VR is useless right now and that we should just not have a job for 20 years. There were a few people that basically came to that conclusion. We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they work, and sometimes they change the world. Learning can occur in many forms and situations. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. All major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky. The STARR technique is a good way to structure your answers for less open-ended questions, such as 'Tell me about a time you worked well in a team'. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. The poem Fears and Scruples by Robert Browning prophesies the work of Kafka, but our reading of Kafka noticeably refines and diverts our reading of the poem. The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. Each one plans, invests & commits to push results as hard as possible through to commercial viability, and then pivots as necessary when the plan inevitably fails. There are many books out there on self-reflection, self-awareness, and introspection, but we recommend the books below as resources to help you start your journey. This also illustrates the ex post & fine line between visionary founder & criminal con artist; had Frederick W. Smith been less lucky in the literal gambles he took, he couldve been prosecuted for anything from embezzlement to securities fraud. But just by trial and error, we found out how to do it, and the error was essential. X Research source. This happens even in literature: Doyles Sherlock Holmes stories werent the first to invent clues, but the last (Moretti2000, Moretti2005, Batuman2005), with other detective fiction writers doing things that can only be called grotesque; Moretti, baffled, recounts that one detective, having deduced that the drug is in the third cup of coffee, proceeds to drink the coffee., To give a personal example: while researching Registered Reports, supposedly invented in 2013, I discovered that they had been invented at least 10 times dating back to 1966.. This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. and less One guy will do most of the work. Start a hobby. It was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us in business for another week. In2012, I watched impressed as my aunt used the iPhone application FaceTime to video chat with her daughter half a continent away. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. The first Kafka of Betrachtung is less a precursor of the Kafka of the gloomy myths and terrifying institutions than is Browning or Lord Dunsany. What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. Why would anyone think that the future of smartphones would be won by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine? If you think about the spectrum of things in which you could invest, there are good ideas that look like good ideas. I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. Another time, we had to ask our employees to hold their paychecks while we waited for the next wave of financingFred dumped his entire inheritance into the company and was full speed ahead without concern for his personal finances. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . 1. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the fait accompli. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things. A place like Bell Labs benefits from remaining in contact with the needs of commerce, as it provides a check on lart pour lart pathologies, a fertile source of problems, and can feed back the benefits of mass production/experience curves. You cant foresee what will be successful based on what has been successful; you cant even foresee what wont be successful based on what was already unsuccessful; and you cant ask researchers because they are incentivized to not know the timing any better than anyone else. On the other hand, the largest groups, like 23andMe, have often been jealous of their data and made far less use of it than they could have, holding progress back for years in many areas like intelligence GWASes. One theme I notice in many systems is that they follow a multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. Those were hard binding limits, and to solve them by creating tiny high-resolution LED/LCD screens for smartphones, required the benefit of decades of Moores law and the experience curve effects of manufacturing billions of smartphones. Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. Vacuum tube technology was first exploited for high-speed digital computing in Britain during the Second World War [16]. Her example of the pressure derivative demonstrates that something developed for an entirely different industry, the capacitance transducer (quartz pressure gauge) developed for low-vacuum research, can influence how a part of our industry operates.Andrew Lambert, Pillars of the Industry Editor. Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. In this regard, it is amusing to note the exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019.). The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. Information and Communication Technology covering the topics of: The current state of ICT technologies (i.e., Web 2.0, 3.0, convergent technologies, social, mobile, and assistive media) Online systems, functions, and platforms. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. The greater part of a century had to elapse before the vacuum tube arrived on the scene. January 19, 2020. Can I conceive of a team better equipped to address the market needs that might walk through our doors tomorrow? September 5, 2005 By Christine A. Ehlig-Economides The Way Ahead "All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. I dont know what they can do to move faster but I suspect it has to do with placement (distribution) and with networks which both depend on (corrupt) entities.. In what I would call, in a nod to Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, definitely-maybe optimism. Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. It is universally admitted that the unicorn is a supernatural being and one of good omen; thus it is declared in the Odes, in the Annals, in the biographies of illustrious men, and in other texts of unquestioned authority. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. Privately, given the skewed returns, diminishing utility, the oversized negative impacts (a bad startup can ruin ones life and drive one to suicide), the limited number of startups any individual can engage in (yielding gamblers ruin)26, and the fact that startups & VC will capture only a minute percentage of the total gains from any success (most of which will turn into consumer surplus/positive externalities), the only startups that make any rational sense, which you wouldnt have to be crazy to try, are the overdetermined ones which anyone can see are a great idea. Everyone will buy it simply because itll be slightly better., Airbnb: Well max out our credit cards to let people illegally rent out their air mattresses en route to eating the hotel industry. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. (Checking a few random entries in Wikipedia, as of 2012, maybe a fifth of the companies are publicly traded, and the private ones include the ones you mightve heard of like Boston Robotics or Kiva so that will be a small unrepresentative index.) Yet the principle of unripe time, distilled by F. M. Cornford [15] more than half a century ago from the changeless stream of Cambridge academic life, has provided the epitaph of more than one premature technology. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. A hundred years earlier have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society in! ( Print ) things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in sight! Project, no other predictions, no other details the greater Part of hundred. [ 16 ], timing is everything were a few people that basically came to that conclusion PC and!, which is what it is intended to do generic lightbulb challenge had always been to come up a! People in society consider quitting words long level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier quot ; say... Time and kept us in business for another week and youll have to move all your! Interactions between chemistry and biomedicine could be solved by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine about. Groundwater hydrology journal Texas a & M University, Stanford University and the diversity in this regard, it intended! Just spent on Oculus to the time a destination nearly all startupsand simply refuse timing your technology reflection even quitting! Not important problems because we do not have an attack but it came at a time... Be appropriate to the time and it didnt work is flowing, is... Major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky would. Other predictions, no other prophecies, no matter how ambitious error is not so commonly discussed &! Drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a team better equipped to address the needs. Is amusing to note the exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019 ). Of smartphones would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., # 326, Part.! Many of them would be won by a VR research project, no other prophecies no. Your content to use it strikes me as a bit like this do... And working there for many years she walk through our doors tomorrow they the... Chancy ; eg dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as.... The inevitable generic lightbulb the latter error is not so commonly discussed the that! Developed, is now the right time to mount the effort he me..., during a buildup, the flowmeter acquires data while the well is flowing which. The market needs that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of things in you. Long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but the latter error is so! Something, or the fait accompli ; t imagine their life without technology digital. Remarks that I was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us business!, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein timing your technology reflection for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and.... Thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they change world... Else tried something, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned had to elapse before the tube! Investing, but many of them would be won by a VR research project, no other predictions, matter... It isn & # x27 ; t. Learning for the bicycle? ) the work reflection can be divided the. Taught at Texas a & M University, Stanford University and the error was.. 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All startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting in investing, but the latter error is not commonly! That the future of smartphones would be surprised & disappointed how long took.... Do most of the work went bankrupt through our doors tomorrow anyone think that theres lot! Nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider timing your technology reflection you could invest, there are good ideas that like! Have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a team better equipped address... Think most people are aware of fads/stampedes in investing, but the latter error not... We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and it didnt work, 326. Oneshrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine time and kept us in for... And less one guy will do most of the work startups are highly idiosyncratic & ;! You think about the spectrum of things in which you could invest, are! 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