Early vote returns are on track to roughly match that rate this year, according to Honolulu Civil Beat. were perhaps the biggest issue in the race, a questionnaire from The Honolulu Star-Advertiser. But the main focus of the Democratic primary was housing. Vicky Cayetano said theres time for her to gain support before the first votes are cast. In contrast, Kahele had stronger numbers among the younger group. Josh Green, the leading candidate so far to become Hawaii's next governor, has a commanding 65% overall approval rating among Hawaii voters and an even more impressive 70% approval . , Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Californias 27th Congressional District. Hawaii Governor - 2018: Ige (D) +29.0 | 2014: Ige (D) +12.4 Senate Polls | Governor Polls | Generic Congressional Ballot | State of the Union Polls | Latest Election Polls Albert Sun Thats almost a third of all ballots sent out this cycle and more than all mail ballots returned in the entire 2018 primary election. Read more Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Hawaii Elections Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races. Who's ahead in the Hawaii governor race? Democratic Primary Winner Josh Green wins the Democratic. Lt. Gov. All registered Hawaii voters are sent a mail ballot. Updated Aug. 16, 2022, 2:48 PM ET. All rights reserved. Results Votes from: All State City Party Ethnicity Income Education Marital Status 708 total votes Last answered 4 weeks ago Total votes In a filing Wednesday, Lake's The support Ms. Tokuda received from outside groups which, in addition to the Congressional Progressive Caucus, included Representative Pramila Jayapals Medicare for All PAC was dwarfed by what Mr. Branco received, from organizations that included VoteVets, cryptocurrency groups and the centrist Mainstream Democrats. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. The amendment preserved Saturday as the last day ballots could be cast. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. Vote counting is already underway, and initial results are likely to be available soon. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. . Nov. 8, 2022, The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. North Carolina's . . Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers major. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Nov. 10, 2022, Support for the abortion proposal was stronger than support for reelected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, in 76 of the states 83 counties. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. All in all, he did really well. Ms. Tokuda defeated her top rival, Patrick Branco, a first-term state representative, and several others. The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. Meanwhile, 16% said theyd back Kahele and 15% said they planned to vote for Cayetano. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. See full results and maps from the Hawaii primary elections. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. A voter dropped off a ballot in Honolulu in 2020. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. IE 11 is not supported. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. , David Valadao, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Californias 22nd Congressional District. Josh Green, Hawaiis second-in-command, wins the Democratic primary for governor. One of Mr. Greens campaign ads this year highlighted the fact that Hawaiis Covid infection rates have been among the lowest in the country, though they have still been devastating, particularly in Native Hawaiian communities. Hawaii Governor: Lt. Gov. Army veteran Lynn Mariano took in no contributions and had a negative balance of $176. The primary drew a large amount of outside spending for a relatively off-the-radar House race. As any entrepreneur knows, it takes a lot of time and energy to start a new venture, whether it is a business or a campaign. . . Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. Josh Green adds to long list", "Endorsements stacking up for Josh Green in Hawaii governor's race", "Lt. Gov. Some 35% of Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders said they support Green compared to 32% who say theyd back Kahele, who is Native Hawaiian. Josh Green continues to enjoy a commanding lead in the Democratic primary race for governor, while Congressman Kai Kahele and businesswoman Vicky Cayetano are in a distant second and third place, respectively. race", "HGEA endorses Sylvia Luke for lieutenant governor", "Editorial: For lieutenant governor's race, it's Sylvia Luke", "Former Lt. Gov. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. If somehow Caldwell could turn that around, especially with rail hanging over him, that would be amazing.. Asked for a comment about his numbers, Kahele told the Star- Advertiser in a terse email: (My) official comment is: Why dont you ask Andy Winer?. Nate Cohn Incumbent David Ige defeated Andria Tupola, Jim Brewer, and Terrence Teruya in the general election for Governor of Hawaii on November 6, 2018. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. . Get live estimates for Senate and House control with our real-time election forecast, which analyzes the results so far to show who is on track to win. Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan after a competitive campaign for Ohios open Senate seat. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Polls close in Hawaii, and initial results could be reported soon. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-hawaii-governor.html. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. Mandela Barnes, delivering a critical victory for Republicans. All rights reserved. According to a new Civil. Josh Green would easily defeat his two main Democratic primary opponents. . Telephone: 808-529-4747. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. The poll results were not a surprise as we know we have not been campaigning as the other candidates have, and at this point, we are pleased with our favorability ratings. Gov. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. In this solidly blue state, the Democratic primaries are likely to determine the November winners. Josh Green, pictured during a news conference on the states testing program for travelers, has been the face of the states COVID-19 response for nearly two years. , Raphael Warnock, Democrat, advances to a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. This marked the third time Aiona had been the Republican gubernatorial nominee, having previously run unsuccessfully in 2010 and 2014. Polished campaign ads show one dimension of an individual, but live, unedited television exposes the truth. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. Only 4% of Republican voters do not recognize his name, according to the Hawaii Poll, compared with 12% of Republicans who do not recognize Aionas name. Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. Hawaiis comparatively low infection rate drew many wealthy remote workers from the mainland, exacerbating the states existing shortage of affordable housing a crisis that, like the pandemic, has hit Native Hawaiians especially hard. Tony Evers won a second term as governor of Wisconsin, giving Democrats a foothold in a critical presidential battleground. Nate Cohn When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. By comparison, 13% of respondents said they have an unfavorable opinion of Green, compared to 29% for Caldwell and 9% for Cayetano, Hawaiis former first lady. Around the world, the choice to hold elections on Tuesdays may be more of an outlier. The Civil Beat/HNN poll was conducted from June 28 to 30 and 1,120 registered voters. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Duke Aiona and a Honolulu City Council member, Heidi Tsuneyoshi. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. An updating average, accounting for each poll's quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. Jill Tokuda wins a Democratic House primary in Hawaii. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. . The last time a Republican presidential candidate carried the state was 1984. Hawaiis First District, which covers the Honolulu metropolitan area, does not have a competitive race. Among those 18 to 49 years old, some 38% said they would vote for him. Reporting by Lalena Fisher and Alyce McFadden; production by Amanda Cordero and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, Amy Hughes and Ben Koski. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Lauren Leatherby Exit Polls Hawaii Updated 4:40 PM EST, Tue November 8, 2022 Sen. Brian E. Schatz is running for reelection in Hawaii. Alicia Parlapiano On the Republican side, Kona business consultant Paul Morgan raised $6,300 and reported $4,092 in cash on hand. Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic secretary of state who has confronted repeated harassment from far-right election deniers, won re-election to her post in Michigan. Nate Cohn Senator Brian Schatz, a Democratic incumbent, is running for re-election and has no serious opposition in his primary. ( NewsNation) Hawaii voters head to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in some important races in the 2022 midterm elections. Cayetano communications director Lynne Waters wrote in a statement that, Much has transpired since the interviews for this poll were conducted, notably the recent series of televised debates. Cayetanos favorability skyrocketed from 13% in January to 38% in July, while the first Hawaii Poll measurement of Kaheles favorability stood at 30% in July. Duke Aiona has 27% of the vote while MMA champion BJ Penn is at 24%. A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Lt. Gov. Read more. Tuesday, January 3, 2023. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. , David Schweikert, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Arizonas First Congressional District. , Gov. Herschel Walker, Republican, advances to a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. These numbers are a good sign.. Kahele, who is from Hawaii County, saw his strongest support on Kauai. Candidate Total Votes Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. John Duarte, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Californias 13th Congressional District. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Read the full story with our Print & Digital Subscription. Jason Kao Andrew Fischer Hanabusa left Congress in 2018 to run against incumbent Gov. Compared to Kemps reported votes, Walkers fell short in every county, but especially in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. Albert Sun Some 56% of respondents said they recognized Greens name and had a favorable opinion, compared to 24% for Caldwell and 13% for Cayetano. August 10, 2024. Josh Green high approval ratings and overwhelmingly said they will vote for him in his run to become Hawaiis next governor. Maggie Astor His approval ratings went up, in most cases, when poll participants were asked about his handling of COVID-19. Hes still very popular.. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. I cant recall anyone having numbers this high, said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaiis Public Policy Center. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/13/us/elections/results-hawaii-governor.html. Hawaii has not elected a non-incumbent Republican senator since 1959, its first federal election as a state. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. Of course (former Gov.) Copy editing by Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan and Curtis Yee. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. #HIGov #Hileg", "Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami endorses Kirk Caldwell in governor's race", "U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele gets key union backing, Lt. Gov. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine. Senator Brian Schatz has also served as Hawaiis lieutenant governor and held other offices. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. David Ige. Log in now to continue reading this story. Civil Beat/HNN poll shows Green with commanding lead in Democratic race for governor. . Print subscriber but without online access? Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate. Roughly 1 in 5 of those polled were still unsure who they planned to support. , Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, defeated Mark Finchem, a G.O.P. Republican Kevin Kiley is an odds-on favorite to win this new open seat. Josh Green has always had high favorables, and they continue to be high even though hes been taking heat from his competitors over the last couple of months, said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaiis Public Policy Center. Nov. 8, 2022, Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. We rated every race in play in 2022. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. On paper, the two main candidates held similar positions, including support for abortion rights and for stricter gun laws. . Follow along after polls close. Guns were perhaps the biggest issue in the race, with both Ms. Tokuda and Mr. Branco endorsing an assault weapons ban, a minimum age of 21 to buy firearms, and other steps that would go well beyond the bipartisan gun bill Congress passed in June. After its voters turned out at the lowest rate of any state about 39 percent in the 2018 general election, lawmakers switched the state to universal mail voting. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. , Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, a Democrat, won a tough re-election campaign, beating Blake Masters, a Trump-backed venture capitalist. In America, where most states administer elections on Tuesdays, Hawaii is an outlier but its unusual primary elections calendar is no accident. Maggie Astor Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Josh Green Wins Big In Democratic Primary By Kevin Dayton / August 13, 2022 Green will face Republican former Lt. Gov. Estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control elections. The total number of votes that are expected in a state that was once a Key battleground Civil Beat/HNN was! Rep. Lee Zeldin in the race for governor weather forecasting too whether to legalize.... 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